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02 May 2020

Lessons From 1918 Pandemic

But No One Is Listening

The lessons from the 1918 pandemic is available for everyone to learn from.

Everything and then some, are available online.

For instance, you can read this short article on the History Channel website.

But of course you won't. So maybe you might read through an introduction and 5 short lessons below.

Pandemics

The Pandemic of 1918 (known as the Spanish Flu) was the deadliest pandemic in recorded history. The actual numbers of course cannot be determined (heck we cannot even get the actual Covid numbers right today).

But the low estimates are that there were over 50 million dead and over 500 million infected. The earth's population back then was only 1.8 billion (for comparison it's 7.8 billion right now, so far).

Spanish Flu

No one really knew when and where this new virus started but it swept through the globe in a series of waves from 1918 to 1920.

Pandemics occur when a new (novel) virus strain for which there is no immunity appears and spreads quickly from person to person throughout the world.

You might remember that the World Health Organization took its sweet time to label the 2019 virus as a pandemic virus, because it is serious business if one is labeled a pandemic.

But pandemics do happen. They used to name new viruses where it originated or where it spread first, spread worst or first got reported. But I guess only in 2020 did we stop naming new viruses after actual places (there were besides the Spanish flu -- the West Nile, Zika, Ebola and MERS for Middle East).

Wuhan Virus

Originally this current pandemic virus was universally called the Wuhan Virus but someone got offended (we know WHO) and said we can't do that anymore, hence in 2020, that someone came up with a new sanitized name -- Covid 19.

Of course some people are still calling this the coronavirus, the Chinese virus or the CCP virus. But the original name (Wuhan Virus) was widely used from back when people started noticing this new virus in late 2019, until early 2020.

Anyway, so 100 years ago the world went through a pandemic, one that we in 2020 are going through right now.

Silently in late 1917, this new virus came about, as we said no one for sure knows when or where yet. But we do know that it killed people worldwide in at least three waves.

Lesson 1

We May Have Not Seen the Worse Yet:

Actually, the first wave of deaths from the 1918 pandemic (during the first half of that year) was relatively low.

It was in the second wave, in the autumn and winter of that year, when it was the deadliest.

The third wave in the spring of 1919 (the following year) was lower than the second but more lethal than the initial wave.

What this means is that this new virus in this current pandemic could run the same course as the 1918 pandemic, especially if we learn nothing from past pandemics.

Basically everything is the same, except the 1918 virus kills off the hosts faster. While the 2019 virus, the virus keeps the patient alive longer and it tends to kill older patients.

Lesson 2

New Viruses Kill People:

Virulent novel viruses kill because there is no immunity to it, there is no treatment, there is no cure and there is no vaccine.

Humankind needed time, commonsense and sometimes luck to lick these pandemics.

And the death toll can be heavy. Like what we have seen so far, and that with restrictions in place.

In 1918, the U.S. economy went south. Businesses were forced to shutdown because millions of people got sick, lots were dying daily and hospitals and funeral parlors were being overwhelmed.

There weren’t enough workers for the farms and the livestock, and other essential work. Companies closed because they ran out of healthy employees or their managers and owners died.

Lesson 3

Commonsense is Not Common:

These are all documented, the way people responded to a pandemic determined what the outcome was.

In Philadelphia, where they said there was nothing to this 1918 virus, they went ahead and decided to push through with a parade attended by over a hundred thousand people.

The result, the virus found warm bodies to jump into and spread from one person to the next. In 10 days, over 200,000 got sick and over 1,000 died.

Then schools, churches, restaurants, saloons and theaters were ordered closed.

But not until it was too late. In a few months, over 15,000 in Philadelphia were dead.

Different Story

In St. Louis, Missouri, it was a different story. Schools, movie theaters and other places were closed. And public gatherings were banned.

The result, the mortality rate in St. Louis was just 1/8th of that of Philadelphia, during the peak of that pandemic.

Masks

Citizens in San Francisco were fined a significant amount if they were caught in public without masks. And they were charged with disturbing the peace. Not sure if we can do something like this today though. People will just go nuts.

But yes, they wore masks back then.

Lesson 4

Immunity, Cure, Treatment or Vaccine, Whatever Comes First:

By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic was coming to an end, as those who were infected either died (most died quickly so the virus didn't have enough time to find another warm body to jump into) or developed immunity (to the virus).

So after three waves and 18 months later, the worst of the pandemic was finally over.

Until the next one is upon us, which is where we are right now but people are still not getting it. We are in a pandemic.

[For Californians, history might repeat itself if we don't learn from it.]

Lesson 5

Stubborn, Stupid or Both:

There is no lesson 5, I guess we all will just have to live with the knowledge that there are more idiots today than ever before. Those who barely passed middle school science strongly believe they know more about viruses than scientists. No sense telling them otherwise.

People are sheltering at home so as not to overwhelm hospitals and funeral parlors. And for the virus to die before it can find a new warm body to jump into and start a new infection.

And also we are buying time for a treatment, a cure or a vaccine to be found.

The other option is like in 1918, 1/3  to 1/2 of the planet gets infected, 50 to 100 million people die and people develop immunity.

As I said, we all need luck and common sense. Yes, good luck with that.

Documentary: 1918 Pandemic


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